Landed here from your weighing machine (really cool and something you should build on to see how the wm does as a predictor over time for select stocks). This post is really good and I appreciate the deep dive since it saves me from reading the book. On the issue of the 50 year cycles and populism, I am not sure the dichotomy of elites vs the populace makes any material difference because I would argue it is always the elites of some kind mobilizing different forces in society (in the name of the "populace" or "paternalistic elites/traditions/capitalism"). While there are lots of changes that come with the particular coalition of the elites, I question the examples that claim to describe a meaningful shift in 50 year cycles that is different from 4 year or 8 year administration cycles.
Hmm I'm not sure. Would you say the elites were responsible for the tea party, occupy wall street, or Bernie bros, or trump getting elected? All of those seemed like grassroots.
Yes, there is often a real grass roots element and I think support from an elite faction is what amplifies it (and if not it dies on the vine). But who knows for sure.
Landed here from your weighing machine (really cool and something you should build on to see how the wm does as a predictor over time for select stocks). This post is really good and I appreciate the deep dive since it saves me from reading the book. On the issue of the 50 year cycles and populism, I am not sure the dichotomy of elites vs the populace makes any material difference because I would argue it is always the elites of some kind mobilizing different forces in society (in the name of the "populace" or "paternalistic elites/traditions/capitalism"). While there are lots of changes that come with the particular coalition of the elites, I question the examples that claim to describe a meaningful shift in 50 year cycles that is different from 4 year or 8 year administration cycles.
And yes agree re weighing machine, just haven't had the time yet for backtests :)
Hmm I'm not sure. Would you say the elites were responsible for the tea party, occupy wall street, or Bernie bros, or trump getting elected? All of those seemed like grassroots.
Yes, there is often a real grass roots element and I think support from an elite faction is what amplifies it (and if not it dies on the vine). But who knows for sure.
https://x.com/robkhenderson/status/1950265536232788327?s=46